Editorial note: This is an opinion/analysis article. Claims concerning intelligence agencies, militant groups and alleged coordination are presented as the author’s analysis and questions; Margalla News has not independently verified those claims.
Whenever signs of greater stability begin to emerge in Kabul and the international community takes steps toward more structured relations with Afghanistan, why do explosions suddenly seem to echo inside Pakistan? In the author’s view, this is not merely a coincidence but part of a recurring pattern that appears whenever prospects for economic and strategic stability in the region improve.
The prospect of peace and sudden attacks
The author argues that a pattern can be seen whenever international engagement with Afghanistan becomes more positive — whether through Kabul’s inclusion in international security discussions involving China, high-level Turkish intelligence meetings in Kabul, or announcements of major regional economic projects and investment from Saudi Arabia. At such moments, the security situation in Pakistan, the article argues, appears to deteriorate sharply.
The attacks on mosques, police facilities and other targets in Peshawar and Kohat are presented by the author as occurring at sensitive diplomatic moments, creating an impression internationally that the wider region remains an unreliable and insecure zone.
The alleged search for an alternative to the TTP
A central and highly contested part of the argument concerns alleged manoeuvring involving intelligence institutions and militant factions.
A new front against the TTP: The article argues that weakening the influence of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and developing an alternative militant grouping has long been an alleged objective attributed by some observers to Pakistani security agencies, particularly the ISI.
The re-emergence of dormant groups: The author points to a group described as having alleged links to transnational jihadist networks that had remained largely inactive for years, but later re-emerged and helped bring several smaller factions together under the banner of Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen Pakistan (IMP).
Media and organisational support: The article further claims that actors associated with al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent played an important role in the formation of the alliance and in managing its media operations.
Alleged overlap and the use of proxies
The activities of factions such as Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, IMP and groups associated with al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent have led, in the author’s view, to questions about possible links, infiltration or cooperation involving the ISI or other covert networks.
The article states that the TTP has denied responsibility for certain attacks, while smaller and more disputed factions have appeared at key diplomatic moments to claim responsibility for attacks in and around Peshawar and Kohat. The author asks who designed such an arrangement, and for whose benefit.
The possible objectives proposed in the article are:
- to portray Afghanistan internationally as insecure and as a centre of terrorism;
- to obstruct expanding relations between the Kabul authorities and foreign governments;
- and to preserve plausible deniability where necessary.
Conclusion
The author argues that the bloodshed from Peshawar to Kohat should not be viewed only through the public claims of militant organisations, but also through the wider context of intelligence competition and geopolitical interests.
When an apparently dormant organisation re-emerges, forms a new alliance and attacks occur at the same time that Kabul’s international relationships appear to be improving, the article argues that questions inevitably arise about who may be pulling the strings and which actors may be using whom against whom.