Pakistan's economy lost momentum in the final months of the last fiscal year. The National Accounts Committee (NAC) on Monday approved a growth rate of just 2% for the fourth quarter (April-June) of fiscal year 2025-26, pulled down by a 4.7% contraction in industry, The Express Tribune reported.
The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) attributed the modest figure to a high base of 6.1% growth in the same quarter a year earlier. Because of the weaker final quarter, the government also trimmed last fiscal year's annual growth rate slightly to 3.65%.
Industry shrinks, farms recover
Agriculture grew 3.7% in the quarter, compared with almost flat growth a year earlier, with important crops up 2.2% on the back of wheat, rice and sugarcane, according to the paper.
Industry contracted 4.7%. The government blames the high base, but the paper said prolonged fiscal stabilisation had hurt the formal sector, while regional tensions and higher fuel prices had dampened demand. Large-scale manufacturing grew only 0.41%, and the electricity, gas and water supply industry shrank 33.2%. Mining and quarrying grew 8.9%, construction 3.52% and services 3.62%.
Imports $14.8 billion higher than reported
At the same meeting, the NAC approved a revision of import data for fiscal years 2021 to 2025, adding a cumulative $14.8 billion. The PBS said the gap arose from a shift in compiling import data from Pakistan Revenue Automation Limited (PRAL) to the more comprehensive Pakistan Single Window.
Imports for fiscal year 2024-25 are now put at $64.5 billion, $6.1 billion more than previously reported, and those for 2023-24 at $59.9 billion, up $5.1 billion. The Express Tribune said it had reported an $11 billion trade data discrepancy a year ago, after which the government and the IMF began scrutinising the figures.
The revision also changed the size of the economy: Rs227 billion was added for 2023-24, taking it to Rs105.5 trillion, and Rs137 billion for 2024-25, taking it to Rs114.2 trillion. The PBS said per capita income rose marginally as a result.