Lahore's air is heavy with smoke again, and satellite data suggest that this year most of the fires are on the Pakistani side of the border. A satellite-based analysis by the Pakistan Air Quality Initiative (PAQI) found 3,712 fire hotspots within a 300-kilometre radius of Lahore between October 27 and November 2, 2,753 of them in Pakistan and 957 in India.
The Pakistani figure was 15 percent higher than the 2,390 recorded in the same period last year and 51 percent above the eight-year average of 1,824 for 2018 to 2025. India's count, by contrast, was far below its eight-year average of 10,448. Based on NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System, the analysis shows the combined total for both countries falling from 19,674 in 2018 and 21,157 in 2020 to 3,667 in 2025.
The analysis found that rising fire activity in the second half of October coincided with higher levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Lahore, with the daily average climbing from about 220 to 285 micrograms per cubic metre around November 1 and 2. It cautions, however, that this does not establish crop residue burning as the sole cause.
Punjab Senior Minister Marriyum Aurangzeb has said winds from the Indian cities of Amritsar and Attari contribute to Lahore's pollution, but experts note that air-trajectory modelling only shows how air masses may move and does not prove where pollutants come from. They also warn that not every satellite-detected hotspot is a crop fire, and that pinning down the sources of Lahore's smog needs satellite, ground-level and weather data together.