The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) warned on Thursday that nearly 40% of Afghanistan's population is projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity this winter, according to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis.
The analysis projects that about 19.2 million people — 38% of the population — will face high levels of acute food insecurity during the November–April lean season. That is an increase from 17.4 million projected for the same period a year earlier.
An estimated five million of those people are expected to face emergency levels of hunger (IPC Phase 4) — double the number projected for April–September 2026. The agencies said immediate food assistance and urgent emergency agriculture support are needed to prevent deaths and total livelihood collapse.
The most severe classifications are projected in Badakhshan, Badghis, Daykundi, Ghor, Samangan, Sar-e-Pul and rural Ghazni, according to the WFP release.
Malnutrition is also expected to worsen. Cases are projected to increase by nearly 10% compared with 2026, reaching four million, with one-quarter expected to be severe and life-threatening. The agencies pointed to high food and transport costs, scarce work and declining humanitarian assistance as pressures squeezing families' access to food as winter approaches.
Prevention and treatment services are lagging well behind rising cases, the agencies said, leaving women and particularly children more exposed. The warning underlines the scale of need facing aid agencies as winter closes in, with funding shortfalls limiting the response.