Study projects up to 451,000 excess heat deaths from 2026-27 Super El Niño

Researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab estimate that extreme heat associated with the 2026-27 Super El Niño could result in as many as 451,000 excess deaths worldwide during the six months from September 2026 through February 2027. The figure is a research projection, not a count of deaths that have already occurred. The report estimates that the number of extremely hot days could rise by about 44% compared with normal years. Nigeria, Indonesia and Sudan are among the countries projected to face the highest excess heat-related mortality, while the Sahel and parts of Southeast Asia are also expected to be heavily affected. Researchers said the toll could rise further if El Niño persists deeper into 2027, with countries including India and Pakistan becoming especially vulnerable during the northern-hemisphere summer.